New England Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA-NE)

List of BRAG/SRA-NE Officers

Assembling the Pieces of the Puzzle: A Vapor Intrusion Case Study

by Lisa J. Campe

and

Risk Assessment and Medical Error Associated with Transitions of Care

by Jonathan Wilwerding

Wednesday, 12 May 2004
4:05-4:30 PM Social gathering, light snacks
4:30–6:30 PM Program

Conference Room, CDM
One Cambridge Place, 50 Hampshire Street,
Cambridge, MA

RSVP Required to Korin Scheible at CDM, ScheibleKA@cdm.com by noon the day of the meeting to facilitate security sign in.


Assembling the Pieces of the Puzzle: A Vapor Intrusion Case Study

Lisa J. Campe, LSP, MPH
Vice President, WOODARD AND CURRAN
Dedham, MA 02026

Summary: The transport of chlorinated volatile organic compound (VOC) vapors from groundwater into occupied buildings is of concern, as indoor air concentrations of these compounds may present risk to occupants. Often, indoor air concentrations are not measured and we rely on transport models to estimate indoor air concentrations based on groundwater or soil gas measurements. We evaluated residences in a neighborhood that had groundwater impacted with chlorinated VOCs. We collected groundwater samples from various wells around the neighborhood, and collected two rounds of soil vapor and indoor air data from over 30 residences. Some of the residences were located over the plume and others were not located over the plume. In addition, ambient air samples were collected on each sampling day from the neighborhood. We present the inter- and intra-medium concentrations that were detected, as well as the data patterns that described the transport of the VOCs. We also describe how the transport conclusions compared to conclusions that would have been made if only fate and transport modeling had been performed. In addition, we present the correlation of measured indoor air concentrations to 'background' indoor air concentrations and how indoor or ambient sources may have affected the indoor air results.

Biography: Lisa J. Campe, LSP, MPH; Vice-President Woodard & Curran, graduated with a BS in Geology from Duke University and received an MPH in Environmental Health from Boston University. Lisa has been consulting on risk-related issues for over 15 years. Prior to this she worked for the Colorado Department of Health. She has conducted risk assessments in a variety of contexts, ranging from regulatory compliance for Federal (e.g., TSCA, CERCLA, RCRA) and State (eg MA, TX, CT, ME, NH) programs ; product safety demonstrations; to litigation support. In her work, she is often called upon to present risk related information and issues to the public. Lisa gave a talk (August '03) on the subject of vapor intrusion and risk at EPA's RCRA conference in Washington DC.

Woodward and Curran, 980 Washington Street, Suite 325, Dedham, MA 02026. Tel: 781-251-0200; Fax: 781-251-9256
Lcampe@woodardcurran.com


Risk Assessment and Medical Error Associated with Transitions of Care

Jonathan Wilwerding
Associate, ABT ASSOCIATES
Cambridge, MA

Summary: There is gathering evidence that preventable adverse events pose a serious risk to the welfare of hospital patients. Indeed, recent estimates imply that as many as 98,000 patients in the United States die each year as a result of medical errors. One response to this evidence is to adapt risk assessment (PRA) models developed for use in nuclear power and deploy them in health care. In this study we test whether it is feasible to use PRA methods to predict medical errors and identify strategies for mitigating threats to patient safety. We specifically model preventable adverse events associated with transitions of care. Transitions are instances in which responsibility for patient care passes from one set of agents in a hospital to another-e.g. from the Emergency Department to Intensive Care. These changes in responsibility add a layer of organizational complexity to patient care, and it is natural to suspect them of raising the likelihood of error. This study explores whether it is feasible to apply PRA models to predict medical errors caused when trauma patients are transferred from the emergency room to the intensive care unit at a hospital in rural Pennsylvania with a Level 1 trauma center. Jonathan will present data sampled from the population of patients who arrive as "trauma alerts". These are patients who might be critically ill or injured and in more or less immediate danger of dying. The talk will describe the use of fault trees to analyze the probability that such patients will become unstable after transfer the ICU due to medical error.

Biography: Jonathan Wilwerding, Ph.D., is an Associate at Abt. Since joining Abt in 1997, he has worked on issues in i) labor economics and policy, ii) international and domestic health economics and policy and iii) applied econometrics. From 2002 through 2004 he directed an effort to evaluate the feasibility of using probabilistic risk assessment to explain medical errors. In 2004 he also served as technical advisor to the Ministry of Health and Central Bureau of Statistics in the Republic of Kenya, as they carried out an analysis of data on the use of healthcare in that nation. Since 2002, Dr. Wilwerding has worked on analyzing and forecasting healthcare spending in Jordan for the year 2015 and evaluating the effects of training programs on workforce attachment among welfare recipients in California. He directed technical development of the AIDS Treatment Cost model, a software tool intended to help developing countries estimate the costs of treating HIV/AIDS. He has also studied price inflation in the pharmaceutical industry, and the behavior of Medicare beneficiaries with regard to information about Medicare. Before joining Abt, Dr. Wilwerding worked at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. His work there included studies aimed at forecasting wages and employment of R.N.'s, as well as work on teen childbearing. In the still more distant past, Dr. Wilwerding was an academic philosopher at University College London and the University of California, where he taught courses on formal logic, model theory, and moral philosophy. Dr. Wilwerding holds advanced degrees from Harvard University and the University of California.

Abt Associates, Wheeler St., Cambridge, MA 02138 (617) 520-3020; Jonathan_Wilwerding@Abtassoc.com